New DHL Global Connectedness Tracker: In-Depth Updates for Decision Makers

DHL launches the new Global Connectedness Tracker, providing regular updates on the state of globalization in a compact format. The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker offers clear and concise information on key global trends – in between the comprehensive DHL Global Connectedness Reports published every two years. The tracker is available both online with interactive elements and as a download.

Clearly Structured Information on the Most Important Current Trends

Like the Global Connectedness Reports themselves, the Global Connectedness Tracker is created in partnership with New York University’s Stern School of Business. The online version of the Tracker features interactive diagrams with further details on specific flows and geographic regions. Each diagram can be configured according to individual parameters and downloaded in this configuration.

The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker breaks down trends based on four key questions to present the most relevant information in a concise manner:

1. Has the growth of global flows gone into reverse?
2. Is geopolitical rivalry fracturing the world economy?
3. Are international flows becoming more regional?
4. Are countries diversifying their international flows?

6 Key Takeaways of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker from November 2024

1. Based on data through mid-2024, global connectedness remains at record levels, underscoring the resilience of international flows to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.
2. International trade is still a central pillar of the global economy. In 2023, 21% of the value of all goods and services produced was traded internationally, just below the historic high of 22%.
3. The ties between the U.S. and China continue to diminish, but account for only a small share of international flows. Direct trade between the U.S. and China has fallen from 3.5% of global goods trade in 2016 to 2.6% in 2024 (January to July).
4. There are signs of weakening ties between the rival geopolitical blocs, mainly due to changes in international flows to and from Russia. The share of global trade between the close allies of the U.S. on the one hand and of China on the other with the respective opposing bloc fell from 13% in 2016 to 10% in 2024 – but only from 11% to 10% if Russia is excluded.
5. Countries that are neither close allies of the U.S. nor China have increased their share of global trade: from 42% in 2016 to 47% in 2024, with the United Arab Emirates, India, Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico experiencing particularly large increases in trade shares over this period.
6. Regionalization is not outpacing globalization. In the first seven months of 2024, goods trade traversed the longest average distance ever recorded (4,970 km), and the share of goods trade taking place within the world’s major regions fell to a new low of 51% (based on data extending back to 2001).

No Trend Reversal in Global Flows – Results and Conclusions at a Glance

The first edition of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker from November 2024 confirms the trends of the latest comprehensive Connectedness Reports and reveals once again the discrepancy between public discussion and actual economic development.

Deglobalization Remains a Risk, but Not a Current Reality

The Tracker does not indicate any global pattern of increasing regionalization, nor any significant change in the diversification of flows between partner countries, despite much talk about a possible fragmentation of the world economy along geopolitical or regional lines. If there has been a realignment of international flows along geopolitical lines, it has been primarily between countries at the center of current conflicts. There has been no shift from international to domestic activities.

Resilient Supply Chains Present Specific Challenges for International Policymakers

The resilience of global flows provides a strong incentive for countries to work together to maintain and extend the benefits of globalization. This resilience, though, goes hand in hand with persistent anti-globalization movements in many countries. This means that policymakers need to step up their efforts to address public concerns about globalization.

Reshoring, Nearshoring, and Friendshoring Pose Risks to Businesses

The future is uncertain. However, recent history (including Brexit, the trade conflicts between the U.S. and China, the COVID pandemic, or the wars in Ukraine and Gaza) suggests that any predictions that new shocks could reverse globalization should be critically questioned. When companies unilaterally retreat from international opportunities, they jeopardize their competitive position given the resilience of international flows. It is thus important to analyze the competitive impact of possible reshoring, nearshoring, or friendshoring measures.

Companies seeking to better capitalize on the opportunities offered by the globalized market should conduct stress tests to assess the vulnerability of their supply chains to disruptions in global trade flows in light of the deglobalization risks that nonetheless exist.

Conclusion: Globalization Withstands the Challenges

In summary, we can assume that we will continue to live in a partially globalized world, with all its opportunities and challenges for countries and companies. International flows are likely to remain too large to ignore. While political developments, geopolitical conflicts, pandemics or natural events constantly change the contours of this complex global landscape, the fundamental drivers and benefits of international engagement will persist.

The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker keeps you on the pulse of these developments. And we at DHL Freight also provide you with the latest information, for example with our quarterly Road Freight Market News. Well-informed, we can work together to meet the challenges of today and tomorrow.