The saying “When China sneezes, the world catches a cold” sums up the global economy’s dependence on China. Bearing in mind the two-week Chinese New Year celebrations, one could also say: “When China celebrates, those who are unprepared have little reason to rejoice.” Only those who are well prepared can maintain their capacity for action.
Why Is China so Important for Europe’s Economy?
China’s transformation from an exporter of basic goods and raw materials to a producer of high-quality technology has long been complete. Electric cars are a prime example of this. Even when China exports raw materials, such as rare earths, they are often in high demand worldwide. As China’s economic power has grown over the decades, so has the impact of the Chinese New Year celebrations on the global economy.
Why Has China Hardly Been Hurt by the Trade Conflict with the US?
Despite the tariff dispute with the US and other global trade conflicts, China’s exports continued to grow significantly in 2025, while imports stagnated due to weak domestic demand. Though exports to the US slumped by 20 percent, many Chinese companies found new markets outside the US.
China’s Trade Surplus Reaches Record High
Trade with neighboring countries in Southeast Asia and Africa grew particularly strongly. China’s exports to the European Union also continued to grow amid trade tensions. Consequently, China achieved an unprecedented foreign trade surplus in 2025. However, given China’s size, imports also remain considerable.
When China’s Economy Stalls, It Affects the Whole World
In short, there are massive amounts of goods flowing to and from China. Whenever something gets stuck there, the whole world suffers the consequences, such as supply bottlenecks and, in the worst case, shortages. This was evident during the pandemic and, most recently, in the dispute over the chip manufacturer Nexperia. During this conflict, China halted the export of Nexperia products, including chips and semiconductors. As a result, the European automotive industry and other sectors were left waiting for essential supplies.
What Is Special About Chinese New Year?
In China (and many other parts of Southeast Asia) the New Year is not celebrated on January 1 but, according to the traditional lunar calendar, on a new moon between January 21 and February 21. With the Chinese lunar years, certain zodiac animals alternate in predetermined cycles as patrons of the respective year. They are assigned to the different elements of wood, fire, earth, metal, and water. Each combination of zodiac sign and element occurs every 60 years.
February 16, 2026, marks the end of the Year of the Wood Snake and the start of the Year of the Fire Horse. In Chinese astrology, Fire Horse years are considered particularly eventful, for better or worse.
Of course, this is a matter of personal belief. In any case, the significant circumstances surrounding the festival are what matter most to importers, exporters, traders, and logistics companies. In terms of its economic impact, Chinese New Year cannot be compared to New Year’s Eve or Christmas celebrations.
Why Does the Chinese Economy Come to a Standstill During the New Year?
The celebrations traditionally commence on the eve of the new moon and continue for up to 15 days. The first week after the new moon is work-free nationwide. Public life and almost all business in China is at rest. Not only offices or factories are closed, but also some (air) ports and other cargo handling centers.
World’s Largest Annual Migration
Since the Chinese New Year is traditionally celebrated within the circle of the immediate and extended family, a veritable mass migration sets in every year for the festivities in the giant realm. In an attempt to balance out the mass movement, many Chinese people are given the week before or after the New Year holiday off from work.
Thus, the entire travel period around Chinese New Year lasts about 40 days. It even has its own name: “Chunyun”. Chunyun is considered the largest annual population migration in the world. From early February to mid-March, hundreds of millions of Chinese people travel across the country. In 2025, over nine billion trips were recorded, and further growth is expected in 2026.
Production Halt in China Has Global Impact
Around four weeks before the New Year celebrations, Chinese manufacturers scale back production, and most businesses close for up to four weeks. In some production facilities, capacity is not fully restored until a month after the celebrations.
As a result, a critical component of the global economic structure is essentially shut down for a period of at least three to four weeks. In addition to production interruptions, the international freight and shipping traffic throughout Southeast Asia is restricted during the celebrations. This has significant consequences for European industry and trade, particularly for transport logistics service providers.
How Can Strategic Planning Help Industry, Trade, and Logistics?
The extended festive season in China inevitably leads to delays of up to a month in trade with China, which in turn has a negative impact on the entire value chain. Many market participants take precautions by increasing their stocks before the Chinese New Year
This is not always possible. Careful preparation for expected delays during the New Year celebrations can help ensure business operations continue uninterrupted. For example, you should book your transportation with logistics service providers well before the celebrations to ensure you have the capacity you need. As the New Year celebrations approach, prices increase and availability decreases for all transport services.
Therefore, it is necessary to analyze exactly what, when, and how much cargo needs to be transported. However, alternatives for cargo space are limited. Another potential problem is a shortage of containers around Chinese New Year. This occurs because more containers leave China due to high export volumes than return via imports. Holiday closures around Chinese New Year worsen the situation by making it difficult to return empty containers.
Sea, Air, Rail, Road – Many Roads Lead Out of China
Alternative sourcing strategies, diversified supply routes, and intermodal transport concepts are becoming increasingly important. Depending on the goods being transported, different modes of transportation or combinations thereof should be considered. In addition to sea freight, which dominates the market, and air freight, which has limited capacity, rail transport has emerged as a significant alternative between China and Europe following the pandemic.
The Overland Route Across the Caucasus Is Becoming More Important
In this context, the expansion of the Trans-Caspian Route, i.e., the land route via the Caucasus that bypasses Russia, plays a crucial role. Besides expanding rail transport, the capacity of road transport is also being increased to boost overall capacity through the so-called Middle Corridor. This makes road freight a promising alternative that allows for door-to-door service.
Communication, Cooperation, and Networking to Safeguard Supply Chains
Smooth processes require information exchange, transparency, and interfaces. To meet forecasts and avoid bottlenecks, plans must be coordinated with logistics partners and other players in the supply chain. Long-term good cooperation with a reliable logistics partner is a priceless benefit both for logistical planning and for addressing specific company needs.
Importing from and Exporting to China: Future-proof with a Competent Partner
For many logistics companies, Chinese New Year is by now operational routine. In 2025, other exceptional events are likely to have had a greater impact on international goods traffic: US customs measures have prompted wholesalers and retailers to restock earlier than usual. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels continue to disrupt shipping routes through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. The war in Ukraine rages on – the list of potential disruptive factors remains long in 2026.
Seasonal material shortages and logistics bottlenecks could become the norm. Resilient supply chains are essential both globally and between China and Europe. With our experience in international transport logistics and specialized knowledge of China, DHL Freight is ready to assist you.
